基于功能网络的珠三角区域经济空间格局

城市网络体系可分为全球城市网络、国家级城市网络和区域级城市网络的纵向层级,网络联系模式包括形态、功能和管治层面。在回顾国内外城市网络理论基础上,构筑珠三角区域经济功能的有向权重网络。将珠三角分为58个功能性城市区域(FURs),对金融产业中的商业银行、证券公司、基金公司和期货公司等部分进行定量测度。研究表明珠三角区域经济空间结构呈现显著的极化趋势,形成以深圳福田和广州天河为中心,深圳罗湖和广州越秀为次中心,各城市中心为空间节点的经济空间格局。深圳前海、横琴新区、东莞松山湖等新型功能区建设将对区域经济空间格局形成潜在影响。     

上海城乡经济多样化测度方法及其演变特征

以上海市为例,从作物多样化、产业发展多样化、土地利用结构多样化、城市经济功能多样化等视角,提出了相应的定量测度方法并展开实证分析。研究结果表明:11950年以来,尽管大多数区县的作物多样化程度趋于下降态势,但上海郊区的作物多样化程度依然较高;近郊区的作物多样化程度的下降幅度大于远郊区,且两者的作物多样化程度在1990年前后发生了明显改变。2改革开放以来,上海农业发展日益趋于多样化;上海工业则经历了"两升两降"的结构调整和优化过程,优势工业行业的集中化和专业化与其它工业行业的分散化和多样化交替演进;上海服务业的多样化程度总体上呈现在波动中上升的态势。31996年以来,上海土地利用结构多样化指数基本呈现上升趋势,且土地利用结构的多样化程度总体较高。41980年以来,上海城市经济功能多样化态势日益明显,产业结构升级与就业结构多样化互动发展。     

经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响及区域分异——以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例

为评估经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响,寻求源头改善城市环境空气质量的可行路径,以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例,基于输出导向的数据包络分析模型,以经济和人口指标为输入,以城市环境空气质量指数为输出,计算城市经济增长和人口集聚的整体效率,表征经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响。结果表明:三大城市群中,京津冀的环境影响比长三角大26.0%,长三角比珠三角大11.2%;省会城市中,中部地区的环境影响最大,东北地区其次,西部地区第三,东部地区最小。快速推进的工业化和城镇化,投资拉动冶金、能源重化工产业和房地产业高速发展,土地财政助推人口密度不断提高,使得大气污染物在城市局地范围内、短时间、大量集中排放,远超城市大气环境容量,是造成城市环境空气质量明显下降的根本原因。改善城市环境空气质量,必须从环境影响源头入手,加快经济转型升级步伐,适度、有序推进人口城镇化。     

Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals

This paper examines the role of nonfundamentals‐based sentiment in house price dynamics, including the well‐documented volatility and persistence of house prices during booms and busts. To measure and isolate sentiment's effect, we employ survey‐based indicators that proxy for the sentiment of three major agents in housing markets: home buyers (demand side), home builders (supply side), and lenders (credit suppliers). After orthogonalizing each sentiment measure against a broad set of fundamental variables, we find strong and consistent evidence that the changing sentiment of all three sets of market participants predicts house price appreciation in subsequent quarters, above and beyond the impact of changes in lagged price changes, fundamentals, and market liquidity. More specifically, a one‐standard‐deviation shock to market sentiment is associated with a 32–57 basis point increase in real house price appreciation over the next two quarters. These price effects are large relative to the average real price appreciation of 71 basis points per quarter observed over the full sample period. Moreover, housing market sentiment and its effect on real house prices is highly persistent. The results also reveal that the dynamic relation between sentiment and house prices can create feedback effects that contribute to the persistence typically observed in house price movements during boom and bust cycles.     

Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

金融支持城市基础设施投融资贡献度的研究

通过分析城市基础设施投融资主体与方式,利用1995—2013年城市基础设施融资数据建立多元回归模型,对金融支持城市基础设施投融资贡献度进行实证分析。一是财政预算、国内银行信贷、国外贷款、债权与股权融资、其他资金（主要包括信托融资和项目融资）等对城市基础设施融资呈显著的正向作用。二是相对于财政预算与国外贷款,目前我国城市基础设施融资更加依赖债权与股权融资、银行信贷、信托融资和项目融资。     

Foreign Institutional Ownership and the Global Convergence of Financial Reporting Practices

This paper investigates whether foreign institutional investors affect the global convergence of financial reporting practices. Using several measures of reporting convergence, we show that U.S. institutional ownership is positively associated with subsequent changes in emerging market firms’ accounting comparability to their U.S. industry peers. We identify this association using an instrumental variable approach that exploits exogenous variation in U.S. institutional investment generated by the JGTRRA Act of 2003. Further, we provide evidence of a specific mechanism—the switch to a Big Four audit firm—through which U.S. institutional investors affect reporting convergence. Finally, we show that, for emerging market firms, an increase in comparability to U.S. firms is associated with an improvement in the properties of foreign analysts’ forecasts.     

以大数据推动城市智慧化发展的创新性规划

以充足数据为基础的城市规划更趋坚定、合理、科学。大大降低了城市运作的风险,提升了居民生活的幸福指数。     

城镇化对生态环境的影响路径及其效应分析

随着城镇化水平的提高,生态环境恶化明显,自然资源被掠夺,环境污染加剧。城镇化对生态环境的影响可以通过人口集聚、经济增长、收入增加、产业转移、技术进步和城市扩张等几种路径实现。文章通过理论分析了城镇化对生态环境的影响路径,并采用逐步回归的方法验证影响路径的效应。其中,经济增长可以改善城镇化过程中生态环境恶化的情况,人口集聚、收入增加、产业转移和城市扩张则会导致生态环境恶化加剧。针对实证分析的结果,本文认为需要控制农村劳动力向城市的转移,逐步缩小城乡收入差距,促进产业结构的优化升级,并合理规划城市布局。     

城市规模、城市结构、产业集聚度与城市能耗

能源是城市经济发展的基础资源,在城市化的进程中,城市的人口、产业、交通、建筑等各要素决定了城市能耗的高低,它们共同形成了不同的城市规模、结构,以及产业结构。本文利用全局主成分析法与固定效应模型,分析发现我国城市发展进程中,东、中、西部城市的规模、结构、产业集聚度的差异所引致的城市能源消耗增长率完全不同。为提高能源利用效率,东部地区应继续发挥产业集聚效应和技术优势,并大力提高城市交通运行效率。同时,中部地区应加快产业结构调整和升级,加强城市用地的合理规划。西部地区则应提高城市密度,改善大而散的城市结构。